Jay Patel
One phase of the election is over with the polls and the results too. Bihar and the USA had to elect the entire government. Elections will be held in more than 50 countries around the world next year. Somewhere the people are fighting against the presidency, Somewhere people don’t like the president and the whole party. One common theme is Change or recurrence will be based on public issues.
Let’s take an example of Africa, it is no longer a country of darkness. Dictators like Idi Amin have come in the past but on the whole now the African countries are developing their political style by crossing bloody conflicts. Election calendar of African subcontinent is full with elections in Zambia, Uganda, Somalia, Morocco, Chad, Central African Republic, Mauritius, Seychelles and many other countries. Many incumbents are reported for changing constitutions and bending rules to ensure they stay in power. Municipal elections in South Africa are of paramount importance.
Be it elections in WB and UP or in Trinidad, Tobago, Salvador, Antiguana, Peru, Mexico and many other South American countries, 2021 is going to be the Year of Elections. And many countries in Asia are going to conduct the festival of democracy. Kazakhstan, Iraq, Japan, Israel, seria, Vietnam and Uzbekistan are prime countries hosting elections next year. Same way most counties of Europe are going to hold elections in 2021 as per the schedules despite pandemic.
Social Media As usual is bridging the geographic distance as well creating some ruckus by manipulating the voters by pushing them to execute the Misinformed choice. The common theme this time is COVID-19, Economy and Unemployment. Let’s go through each major parameter.
COVID-19:
The US Presidential election 2020 just saw every aspect of it affected by COVID-19 from campaign to voting pattern to results (also campaign strategies are getting more creative). Democratic elections, by the very nature of it, is extremely challenging to be held amidst the spread of an infectious disease like Covid-19. As elections require intense public interaction and mass communication, the apprehension is that the precautionary norms like social distancing and avoidance of crowded gatherings will essentially impede the hassle-free conduct of elections.
Convincing the electorates to participate in the elections enthusiastically, despite the Covid-19 threat, will depend on the confidence-building measures to be taken by the election conducting bodies. In India, the Election Commission of India deserves appreciation for conducting fair and peaceful elections despite COVID-19.
One important pattern observed here is voters are judging efficiency of the current government in managing the pandemic as it is directly connected with Health Care. The free covid vaccine issue was a common theme in the manifesto in the USA as well in India’s Bihar.
US President Donald Trump in his public first speech since the disputed presidential elections said Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine will be available to the entire general population in April next year. Meanwhile BJP, in its manifesto for Bihar elections, had promised free COVID-19 vaccine once it is cleared by the ICMR and was subject of debate whether it is violation of the provisions of the model code.
Economy and Employment:
The economy is imperative for Democrativ voters, particularly if it’s not doing well. And it’s not for many of the countries including India. For example Before the outbreak of the pandemic, Trump had a three-year-record of a robust, healthy economy to look back on. But starting with the lockdowns in March, small businesses had to close all over the country and in mid-April of this year, more than 23 million Americans were out of a job. That’s an unemployment rate of 14.7%, up from 3.5% just two months earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Millions of people around the world have lost their jobs, and many businesses go dysfunctional, the pressure on the Government to bring back the derailed economy on track is higher than ever. Bihar manifestos rained jobs on the same line of thoughts as well. Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of 10 lakh jobs in Bihar and Counter promise was made of 19 lakh jobs but reality is grim.
India will take ‘years’ to recover from the unemployment crisis. Job losses and economic malaise in India show no sign of slowing as the impact of the coronavirus continues to batter almost every sector. Experts say recovery will be long and difficult. As per the report as many as 21 million salaried jobs have been lost between April and August, according to a recent report by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
According to a team of economists including Michael Patra, the central bank’s deputy governor in charge of monetary policy, India’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter, pushing the country into an unprecedented recession. The government is fasting up the efforts in the Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan 3.0 package to overcome the effects of pandemic on the economy which has also a goal to woo the voters in upcoming state elections.
In 2021, Voting for the other 5 state governments will take place around April-May. Assam, Kerala, Tamilnadu, West Bengal and Puducherry is waiting for a new government. Political conflict will be in West Bengal Where Mamata Banerjee, who broke away from the Congress and challenged the Left Front, has almost split in the Trinamool Congress. Congress is in a weak position and The left is trying to form a government again. BJP will be a powerful challenge to all of these. In Assam, the state government is being headed miraculously by Sarvanand Sonewale where isse of CAA will again top the charts of election debate. In Bihar, even if there is an alliance with the Congress with the communist parties, it is unlikely in Kerala. A spectacular scene of political polarization will be observed in Kerala.
Finishing touch : Citizen’s pain and ambitions will be expressed in next year’s elections on the world stage. But with every election we have to examine if this newly invented system of election and democractic rules are working as expected. If not self-reflection by the voters is essential before voting, else the perceived democracy might become another handy tool of unbalanced communism or uncontrolled capitalism.
